Journal of Modern Economy

  • Foreign direct investment, Agriculture and economic growth: ARDL and causality approach for Rwanda

    This study tested the relationship between Rwanda’s economic growth, foreign direct investment, and labor in agricultural spanning between 1970 and 2017. In this paper, the ARDL “bounds” test method is used to analyze the co-integration problem of variables with a constant level relationship. Co-integration coefficients were estimated using the ARDLs model. After verifying the long-term (co-integration) equilibrium relationship of economic growth within the variables, the error correction model is used to estimate the short-term coefficients. We found that agriculture and foreign direct investment have becomes an engine depending of Rwanda’s economic development. The FDI has a causal relationship to economic growth; while labor have no causal relationship to economic growth. The Rwandan government should promote macroeconomic policies to encourage foreign direct investment and promote economic growth in agriculture.

  • Assessing the Impact of Garbage Classification on China’s Economic Environment

    This article mainly studies the impact of waste classification on China’s economy and environment. For the economy, the annual per capita waste removal volume, waste disposal cost, and waste disposal profit from 2008 to 2017 were selected as the three input indicators, and GDP was used as the output value. A BP neural network model based on GM (1,1) was established. The GM (1,1) model is used to predict the values of the three indicators in the next five years. The relationship between GDP and the three input indicators is determined using the BP neural network. The three indicators are substituted into the model to obtain the GDP in the next five years. value. As for the environment, the number of resource processing plants, resource processing capacity, and resource processing capacity are selected as three input indicators, and the per capita green space area is used to measure the impact on the environment. The same method is used to predict the per capita public green area in the next five years. The results show that garbage classification will have a beneficial impact on China’s economy and environment, but the impact will weaken year by year.

  • Predicting stock price based on BP neural network model

    The increase in the stock will affect the development of the economy, so the description and forecast of the capital are fundamental. Therefore, this paper first analyzes the historical data of Everbright Bank stock (601818) and explains the stock increase, the share affected by the exchange rate, and the index correlation analysis. Then a prediction model based on BP neural network is established. BP is used to train stock descriptors to predict stock prices for the first 30 trading days in early 2019. Combined with ARE and MSE for error analysis, the average relative error is 3.6%, and the mean-variance is 0.041, indicating that the prediction effect of the model is good. To make a specific contribution to the study of stock price prediction.

  • The Effect of Real Effective Exchange Rate Volatility on Uganda’s Trade Balance (1993-2015)

    This paper investigated the effect of Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) volatility on Uganda’s Trade Balance for the period 1993Q4 to 2015Q4 by employing the GARCH and ARDL methodology. The ARDL results revealed a negative relationship between the trade balance and the volatility of the real effective exchange rate in the short run. The Impulse Response Function results show evidence of the J-Curve on Uganda’s Trade Balance. Also, the results on the REER indicate that the Marshal-Lerner Condition holds for Uganda’s case. The study therefore recommends that developing a well-developed hedging facility like forward markets and institutions is critical in protecting exporters against exchange rate risk in the short run by reducing volatility of the real effective exchange rate with the aim of improving Uganda’s trade balance.

  • On one criterion for the permanent economy development

    A new method of investigation the equilibrium state of the economy is proposed. The classification of the equilibrium states is given. The basic principle of equilibrium the economy system to its environment is formulated. It is used to obtain the money circulation equation. On this basis the notion of the permanent economic development is defined. The analysis of the economy of four countries is given. The principe of adequacy of currency exchange and inflation rates to the factors that their determine is proposed. This work was supported in part by the Program of Fundamental Research of the Department of Physics and Astronomy of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (project № 0117U000240).

  • A Note on Statistical Arbitrage and Long Term market Efficiency

    Market efficiency is a central topic in finance. The notion of statistical arbitrage is a suitable instrument to investigate market efficiency without the need to specify an equilibrium model. We introduce a new definition of statistical arbitrage (named Strong Statistical Arbitrage, SSA in the following) modifying the original definition in an apparently infinitesimal way. We show that some simple investment strategies, recognized as statistical arbitrages by the standard definition, do not test positive for SSA. We discuss the relations between the proposed definition and common definitions of arbitrage and prove that SSA is compatible with deviations from market efficiency in a “short term frame.” The idea is that if market anomalies are small, the markets do not deviate significantly from efficiency, while an SSA requires time persistent anomalies on asset prices.

  • Research on the Impact of Chinese Science and Technology Finance on Entrepreneurial Efficiency

    This paper is based on panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2008 to 2017, The convergence of innovation efficiency is tested by σ convergence and β convergence test, Using stochastic frontier model and principal component analysis to analyze the impact of Chinese science and technology finance on entrepreneurial efficiency. The study found: Venture capital investment is more flexible than the output of entrepreneurial man-power investment, technology finance has a significant positive impact on entrepreneurial efficiency, but there is a problem of regional development imbalance. Convergence and divergence analysis found, the gap in entre-preneurial efficiency between the central, eastern and western regions is gradually narrow; Factors such as social capital, economic development level and foreign direct investment also have a positive impact on entrepreneurial efficiency. Finally, this paper also puts forward some suggestions on improv-ing the efficiency of entrepreneurship from the perspectives of upgrading science and technology financial services, developing science and technology financial innovation and entrepreneurial environment.

  • Impacts of Infrastructure on One Country’s Trade An Analysis based on the new Eurasian Continental Bridge Economic Corridor along the One Belt One Road

    In nowadays context of global economic integration, China has proposed the “One Belt One Road” Strategy in 2014, which fits into the new changes in global economy and finds us a new growth in economy development. This article has selected the panel data of 23 countries along the “new Eurasian Continental Bridge Economic Corridor” in 2002-2016 and analyzed the influences of one country’s economic infrastructure and social infrastructure upon its national trades using the fixed effect model. The research result shows that the construction of energy infrastructure may produce less obvious negative effects on one country’s national trade while the influences of the railway and aviation infrastructure will be varied because of the different natural endowments of the country. And one country’s trade will increase as construction of communication infrastructure develops. For social infrastructure, the effects upon one country’s trade are not obvious from education infrastructure construction, scientific research infrastructure construction, medical infrastructure construction and environmental infrastructure construction.

  • Prospects and challenges of Good governance in the realm of service delivery

    The main objective of the study is to assess the report of the office of urban planning practice of good governance in shire Municipality located in Tigray regional state ,Ethiopia .Accordingly, transparency and responsiveness which are the main indicators of good governance had used to assess the governance situation in the public institutions’ of land administration office . The research design and strategy of the study was qualitative and quantitative. The study used 153 purposely selected sample respondents from the selected sub cities that are Ayder and Hawelti sub cities. In order to gather the necessary data from the sample respondents, Questionnaire and interview were used as data collection tools. In this regard descriptive statistics was employed to analyze the data obtained via questionnaire. The qualitative data was analyzed by making use of descriptions and interpretations. The findings of the study show that there is lack of accessibility of information, corruption and rent seeking behavior from the bureaucrats, delay of decisions, lack of openness and low satisfaction from the constituents and irresponsiveness are considered the main hindrances’ of good governance with regard to service delivery.

  • To Examine Audit and Non-audit Fees Disclosed in the Annual Reports by Company and Industry

    EachThis research aims to examine audit and non-audit fees disclosed in the annual reports by company and industry. Research questions are how audit and non-audit fees disclosed in German financial service companies? What are compositions of NAS fees in researched companies from 5 industries in 2015? What are trends of audit and non-audit fees in researched companies? And what are reasons behind trends? According to these questions, relative explanations and theories will be represented. The final research question is that are current regulations issued by the SEC, the PCAOB and the EC effective to eliminate adverse impacts of NAS? This research firstly examines how audit and non-audit fees disclosed in annual reports by company and industry, through investigating audit and non-audit fees in German financial companies and compositions of NAS fees in 61 companies from 5 industries in 2015, then observing trends of audit and non-audit fees in researched companies and exploring reasons behind trends. Finally trying to evaluate the effectiveness of regulations research issued by the SEC, the PCAOB and the EC. With regard to purposes to address these questions, since the topic of this research is about NAS, which cannot be comprehensively surveyed without the consideration of audit services, and they need to be compared with each other in the research process to arouse conclusions. Thus audit and non-audit fees are employed as the measurement of audit services and NAS provided by accountancy firms. Another important theme of this research is auditing regulations, as the final objective is to prove the justification of NAS, the effectiveness of legislations and regulations is evaluated, helping to get the conclusion.